Journal Papers

Paper Briefings

Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks

May 10, 2025

Oscar Higuera Roa (IIASA) and colleagues held a systematic literature review that examined recent developments in CRA, focusing on how climate risks are framed and assessed and highlighting challenges and opportunities for future research.

Understanding multiple resilience dividends and system boundaries in disaster- and climate-risk management

April 4, 2025

Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler (IIASA) and colleagues suggest ways to tackle challenges in managing disasters induced by natural hazards in an integrated and comprehensive manner by applying key concepts from systemic risk research to triple- and multiple-dividend approaches.

Identifying vulnerability factors associated with heatwave mortality: a spatial statistical analysis across Europe

March 24, 2025

The study, authored by Benedetta Sestito (IVM) and colleagues, presents the first dynamic heat vulnerability assessment for Europe, incorporating spatial and temporal dimensions through ordinary least squares regression.

Karaman, Ç., Cerit, H., Demirkol, K., et al. Climate Hazard Assessment for Dairy Farming in Aydin, Türkiye: Preliminary Results from the CliResDairy Project.
In International Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, XLVIII-4/W18-2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W18-2025-167-2026.
Keywords: dairy farming; climate resilience; hazard assessment; regional climate projections.

Mazzoleni M., Di Baldassarre G., Hagström A., et al. Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries.
In Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 248. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03358-6.
Keywords: human migration; drought; socio-economic factors; climate change; agricultural regions.

Reimann L., Eilander D., Tiggeloven T., et al. Climate Risk STAC: A living metadata catalog of geospatial data for climate risk assessments.
In Environmental Modelling & Software, 198, 106906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106906.
Keywords: climate risk assessment; geospatial datasets; FAIR data principles; metadata catalog; climate hazards.

Bachmann M., Mechler R., Higuera Roa O. et al. Combining quantitative and qualitative risk aspects for adaptive and flexible climate risk assessment. In EGU General Assembly 2025, EGU25-8462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8462
Keywords: risk framework; climate risk management; risk governance; climate risk assessment; systematic literature review.

Buskop F.E., Sperna Weiland F., Hochrainer-Stigler S. et al. Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi-Sectoral Systems. In Earth’s Future, 13, e2025EF006499. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006499.
Keywords: regional climate risk; climate change; floods; systemic risk; economic effects; climate storylines.

Endendijk T., Rodriguez Castro D., Dillenardt L. et al. Flood experience and access to insurance contribute to differences in homeowners’ post-disaster adaptation in a cross-border region of Western Europe. In Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 426. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02385-z ‒ (feature available)
Keywords: flood; insurance; household; adaptation; natural disaster risk;

Higuera Roa O., Bachmann M., Mechler R. et al. Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks.
In Environmental Research Letters, 20, 053003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc756 ‒ (paper briefing)
Keywords: risk framework; climate risk management; risk governance; climate risk assessment; systematic literature review.

Hochrainer-Stigler S., Mechler R., Higuera Roa O., et al. Understanding multiple resilience dividends and system boundaries in disaster- and climate-risk management: a systems approach for enhanced decision-making.
In Environmental Research Letters, 20, 044026. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adac7a ‒ (paper briefing)
Keywords: multiple dividends; multi-risk, systemic risk; dependencies; system-of-systems; natural hazards; extremes.

Kubáňová, M., Kubáň, M., Kalaš, M., et al. Climaax project: Heat wave toolbox.
In EGU General Assembly 2025, EGU25-4115. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4115, 2025
Keywords: heat waves; climate adaptation tools; climate risk assessment; local decision support systems; urban climate resilience.

Meléndez-Landaverde, E., Sempere-Torres, D., González, V., et al. Are rainfall warning levels ready for climate change? A case study from Catalonia, Spain.
In EGU General Assembly 2025, EGU25-10418. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10418, 2025
Keywords: climate change; extreme precipitation; rainfall warning thresholds; urban flooding; climate adaptation.

Mozzi, G., Biddau, F., Bachmann, M., et al. Advancing Climate Resilience: Insights from a European Survey on Regional Climate Risk Assessment.
In EGU General Assembly 2025, EGU25-10512. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10512, 2025
Keywords: climate risk assessment; climate resilience; stakeholder engagement; climate scenarios; participation.

Sestito B., Reimann L., Mazzoleni M., et al. Identifying vulnerability factors associated with heatwave mortality: a spatial statistical analysis across Europe.
In Environmental Research Letters, 20, 044025. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adbcc8 ‒ (paper briefing)
Keywords: heatwaves; social vulnerability; heat vulnerability index; heatwave mortality; extreme heat; heat stress; vulnerability driver.

Wetterhall F., Polster C., Vučković M., et al. The CLIMAAX Handbook – an online tool for regional climate risk assessments.
In EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, EMS2025-685. https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-685.
Keywords: climate risk assessment; multi-hazard analysis; climate change adaptation; open-source tools; regional vulnerability assessment.

Aerts J., Bates P., Botzen W., et al. Exploring the limits and gaps of flood adaptation.
In Nature Water, 2, 719–728. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00274-x ‒ (author’s brief available)
Keywords: flood; adaptation; framework; risk assessment; adaptation gap.

Bachmann M., Mechler R., Higuera Roa O. et al. An adaptive and flexible Climate Risk Assessment Framework for regions.
In EGU General Assembly 2024, EGU24-16910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16910.
Keywords: Climate Risk Assessment; Framework; Climate resilience; Adapatation; Poster.

Buskop F.E., Sperna Weiland F., Van den Hurk B.. Amplifying exploration of regional climate risks: clustering future projections on regionally relevant impact drivers instead of emission scenarios.
In Environmental Research: Climate 3, 045030, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f8f ‒ (feature available)
Keywords: Regional climate risk; Climate scenarios; Climate uncertainty.

Fonseca Cerda M., De Moel H.., Van Ederen D. et al. Empirical evaluation of windstorm losses and meteorological variables over the Netherlands.
In Natural Hazards, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-07024-y.
Keywords: Netherlands, wind, windstorm, insurance, risk assessment.

Ingels M., Botzen W., Aerts J. et al. The state of the art and future of climate risk insurance modeling.
In Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1541, 1, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15255 ‒ (author’s brief available)
Keywords: Actuarial models; Catastrophe models; Climate Change; Insurance; Natural disaster risk

Matanó A., Berghuijs W., Mazzoleni M., et al. Compound and consecutive drought-flood events at a global scale.
In Environmental Research Letters, 19, 064048. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad4b46.
Keywords: drought-flood; consecutive/compound, flood timing; global analysis; observation data.

Mazzoleni M., Mondino E., Matanó A. et al. Modelling the role of multiple risk attitudes in implementing adaptation measures to reduce drought and flood losses.
In Journal of Hydrology, 636, 131305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131305 ‒ (author’s brief available)
Keywords: Risk perception; Adaptation strategies; Human–water dynamics; Droughts and floods; System dynamics.

Reimann L., Koks E., De Moel H. et al. An Empirical Social Vulnerability Map for Flood Risk Assessment at Global Scale (“GlobE-SoVI”).
In Earth’s Future, 12, e2023EF003895. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003895 ‒ (author’s brief available).
Keywords: Social vulnerability; Vulnerability modelling; Flood risk; Risk assessment.

Vučković M., Wetterhall F.. Bridging the gap between climate data and policy makers: The CLIMAAX project example.
In EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, EMS2024-1060. https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1060.
Keywords: Climate data; Policy; Jupyter; Climate Risk Assessment; Toolbox; Poster.

Meijer L.G., Reimann L., Aerts J.. Comparing spatially explicit approaches to assess social vulnerability dynamics to flooding.
In International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 96, 103883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103883 ‒ (author’s brief available).
Keywords: Social vulnerability; Coastal flooding; Disaster risk; Vulnerability modelling; Flood risk.

Shyrokaya A., Pappenberger F., Pechlivanidis I. et al. Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts.
In WIREs Water, e1698. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1698.
Keywords: Drought; Early action; Early warning systems; Impacts.